Hi This is the METJEFFUK 2017 spring and summer forecast (written version)
April
A mostly dry month but becoming cool and times cold with wintry showers around Easter and in to the end of the month.
The forecast.
High pressure will remain to the west of the UK and Ireland keeping the dry theme going in the west with any rain more likely in the east.
Temperatures: Below normal
Rainfall: Below normal
Wind: Less windy than normal
Sunshine: Above normal
May
Trend:
High pressure will remain to the west of the UK and Ireland keeping the dry theme going in the west with any rain more likely in the east.
The forecast.
First two weeks
Heavy rain likely in the north and east with dryer weather most likely in the SW.
Last two weeks
High moves NW allowing cold NE winds, best of any dry weather will be over Ireland and NW England showers in the north east and east coast with hail and thunder in places small chance of funnel clouds too, the south and south west may see rain at times later.
Temperatures: Below normal
Rainfall: Normal
Wind: less windy than normal
Sunshine: Above normal
June
Trend:
The high slips away south allowing low pressure to move in off the Atlantic.
The forecast.
First two weeks:
Unsettled with rain at times, with rain will come storm force winds up 70mph and despite the wind and rain it be very mild with tropical maritime air with south seeing a muggy 25C/75F thunderstorms could be severe in places.
Last two weeks
After an unsettled start to June it should slowly become more settled with a large high building over France, the south will turn very hot and humid with a lot of sunshine and temperatures in to the low 90’S (f) while the north will see cooler conditions and rain at times.
Temperatures: Above normal
Rainfall: Above normal (last two weeks)
Wind: Less more windy than normal
Sunshine: Above normal
Thunderstorms; More severe than normal
Trend:
The high slips away south allowing low pressure to move in off the Atlantic.
The forecast.
First two weeks:
Unsettled with rain at times, with rain will come storm force winds up 70mph and despite the wind and rain it be very mild with tropical maritime air with south seeing a muggy 25C/75F thunderstorms could be severe in places.
Last two weeks
After an unsettled start to June it should slowly become more settled with a large high building over France, the south will turn very hot and humid with a lot of sunshine and temperatures in to the low 90’S (f) while the north will see cooler conditions and rain at times.
Temperatures: Above normal
Rainfall: Above normal (last two weeks)
Wind: Less more windy than normal
Sunshine: Above normal
Thunderstorms; More severe than normal
July
The high over France slips south but a new high in the Atlantic moves east.
The forecast:
First two weeks
Trend:
Dry and sunny in south more unsettled in the north, with unsettled weather moving south follow by a dryer spell and temperatures rising.
Last two weeks
High building over Scotland low pressure over France moving north.
The north of England and Ireland mostly dry and sunny, heavy thunderstorms over the continent affecting the south England some of these storms very heavy with severe lightning and flooding in places.
August
Trend:
After a stormy start it settles down again with high pressure over the country more storms later.
First two weeks
Mostly dry and sunny at first, soon becoming very hot with temperatures in London at 38C/100F the SW will see thundery rain and severe lightning with local floods possible this weather will move east.
Last two weeks
Very hot and humid with heavy and severe thunderstorms lasting all and night in places but some sun too. High of 24-35/ 75-95F
Temperatures: Above normal
Rainfall: Above normal (last two weeks)
Wind: Less windy than normal
Sunshine: Normal
Thunderstorms Severe flooding in places
So here at metjeffuk we are going for a wetter than average summer, but with some dryer interludes temperature are expected to on the cool side at first but we are expecting some very warm or even hot spells, a very high risk of heavy rain with thunder and severe lightning at times, also flooding is a real risk.
metjeffuk spring and summer long range forecast 2017
Issued 19th April 2017
(video to follow)
THE SPRING AND SUMMER 2017 WEATHER FORECAST HERE ON THE 19TH OF MARCH
The metjeffuk autumn and winter forecast update 2016/17
SW England will see the worst winter for 5 decades with possible frequent blizzards! The written winter forecast 2016/17 month by month here later today.
Created on 23 of August 2016 this is the first autumn and winter 2016/17 forecast from metjeffuk.
First up I know and trust most of you that are reading this are intelligent sensible people and realise taking forecasting more than 5 days is unlikely to be accurate and is always “just for fun” but there are a few out there that just don’t get it, what we aim to show you here at metjeffuk is what we think the most probable way the atmosphere is likely to go and to see if there is any definite trends that might point to ether a mild or cold winter ahead, we do this by using archive weather models and the latest climatic computer models, plus over 45 years of weather forecasting, thank you for taking the and I hope you enjoy the video.
The Metjeffuk 2016/17 Autumn and Winter
This is one of the most difficult and challenging forecasts we've ever produced. The transition from El Niño to la nina has been slow this year. Whilst we are on our way into an La nina , because of the relative slowness of the transition from Nino Nina we are very unsure as to any potential impacts this winter
So a relatively slow transition to la Niña and a relatively weak Ea Nino plus the fact that SST are looking favourable for northern blocking together with the lack of sunspots looks like it's the main background signal for this winter.
.
So it's a very difficult and challenging forecast so with low confidence metjeffuk predicts a mixed autumn and winter with slightly colder than average temperatures, with rainfall/snowfall potentially coming out a little above than average. Temperature anomalies are expected to be around 0.2c to 1c below average.
We expect a fairly mobile Atlantic this autumn but some drier days as transitional high pressure moves across the country followed by a change to a milder and more unsettled pattern which will probably last into November.
Because of events in the Equatorial Pacific we believe there is a chance of northern blocking and this would give way to very cold Siberian air, this would be more likely to happen in January/February 2016
We will to keep an eye on this autumn and winter and however things play out we're expecting a very interesting season ahead.
However things play out, we will evaluate the autumn and winter forecast at the end of the season to see how we did and what happened. Obviously as the season progresses we'll keep you posted with all the developments so keep checking back to metjeffuk.com for updates
THE 2016/17 AUTUMN & WINTER WEATHER FORECAST
October:
A mostly mild month apart from the north and west which will be much windier and wetter most other places will see a dry month overall temps around normal.
November:
Starts wet, windy and mild in the north, drier in the south. Second week it looks like it could turn much colder with showers turning increasingly wintry especially over high ground and in the north with the first disruptive snowfall possible, into the third and last of the month and we see a return to very windy westerly’s with a lot rain, this could be wintry over the Scottish hills.
December:
The month will start cold and wintry in the north and east dryer in the south with high pressure nearby frosty at night and I think the high will hang around for most of the month, with the Scandinavian high building, as for Christmas my thoughts are for a very cold and frosty one but dry, one thing we may see is freezing fog. Things change after Christmas with our high moving north to join up the Scandinavia high allowing the winds to turn in to north dragging very much colder air from Siberia.
January:
The month starts very wintry biting easterly or north easterly wind apart from the east coast most other places should remain dry, but snow showers heavy at times will continual here with substantial accumulations possible. Around mid to late month I’m expecting a very deep low to move in to the SW of England with this winds will be gusting 50 /60MPH and heavy snow which will be blowing about giving Blizzard conditions here .
February:
A very cold month will biting east or SE winds coming off a very cold continent, periods of snow almost anywhere drifting in places.
More updates later.
Metjeffuk.com
5-09-16
SW England will see the worst winter for 5 decades with possible frequent blizzards! The written winter forecast 2016/17 month by month here later today.
Created on 23 of August 2016 this is the first autumn and winter 2016/17 forecast from metjeffuk.
First up I know and trust most of you that are reading this are intelligent sensible people and realise taking forecasting more than 5 days is unlikely to be accurate and is always “just for fun” but there are a few out there that just don’t get it, what we aim to show you here at metjeffuk is what we think the most probable way the atmosphere is likely to go and to see if there is any definite trends that might point to ether a mild or cold winter ahead, we do this by using archive weather models and the latest climatic computer models, plus over 45 years of weather forecasting, thank you for taking the and I hope you enjoy the video.
The Metjeffuk 2016/17 Autumn and Winter
This is one of the most difficult and challenging forecasts we've ever produced. The transition from El Niño to la nina has been slow this year. Whilst we are on our way into an La nina , because of the relative slowness of the transition from Nino Nina we are very unsure as to any potential impacts this winter
So a relatively slow transition to la Niña and a relatively weak Ea Nino plus the fact that SST are looking favourable for northern blocking together with the lack of sunspots looks like it's the main background signal for this winter.
.
So it's a very difficult and challenging forecast so with low confidence metjeffuk predicts a mixed autumn and winter with slightly colder than average temperatures, with rainfall/snowfall potentially coming out a little above than average. Temperature anomalies are expected to be around 0.2c to 1c below average.
We expect a fairly mobile Atlantic this autumn but some drier days as transitional high pressure moves across the country followed by a change to a milder and more unsettled pattern which will probably last into November.
Because of events in the Equatorial Pacific we believe there is a chance of northern blocking and this would give way to very cold Siberian air, this would be more likely to happen in January/February 2016
We will to keep an eye on this autumn and winter and however things play out we're expecting a very interesting season ahead.
However things play out, we will evaluate the autumn and winter forecast at the end of the season to see how we did and what happened. Obviously as the season progresses we'll keep you posted with all the developments so keep checking back to metjeffuk.com for updates
THE 2016/17 AUTUMN & WINTER WEATHER FORECAST
October:
A mostly mild month apart from the north and west which will be much windier and wetter most other places will see a dry month overall temps around normal.
November:
Starts wet, windy and mild in the north, drier in the south. Second week it looks like it could turn much colder with showers turning increasingly wintry especially over high ground and in the north with the first disruptive snowfall possible, into the third and last of the month and we see a return to very windy westerly’s with a lot rain, this could be wintry over the Scottish hills.
December:
The month will start cold and wintry in the north and east dryer in the south with high pressure nearby frosty at night and I think the high will hang around for most of the month, with the Scandinavian high building, as for Christmas my thoughts are for a very cold and frosty one but dry, one thing we may see is freezing fog. Things change after Christmas with our high moving north to join up the Scandinavia high allowing the winds to turn in to north dragging very much colder air from Siberia.
January:
The month starts very wintry biting easterly or north easterly wind apart from the east coast most other places should remain dry, but snow showers heavy at times will continual here with substantial accumulations possible. Around mid to late month I’m expecting a very deep low to move in to the SW of England with this winds will be gusting 50 /60MPH and heavy snow which will be blowing about giving Blizzard conditions here .
February:
A very cold month will biting east or SE winds coming off a very cold continent, periods of snow almost anywhere drifting in places.
More updates later.
Metjeffuk.com
5-09-16
