This is the written version the metjeffuk 2018 summer forecast video will follow soon. Overview
Below average start to may . Temperatures probably at or little below average. Signal is for less rainfall, but still thunderstorms with severe hailstorms are possible, there will be a slight bias towards dryer than average in England and Wales.
MAY: FIRST HALF
Temperature: Below average at first quickly recovering to the CET normal or slight above normal. Precipitation: Close to or below the average.
The first half of the month will start with unsettled weather and rather chilly conditions across the country.an increasing threat of Thunderstorms with severe Hailstorms.
MAY: SECOND HALF Detail:
Temperatures should recover in the last two weeks to normal or above, Becoming increasingly warm in southern and central regions, but probably remaining close to average in the north west England, Northern Ireland Scotland and near coasts . For a time it may also become significantly drier and warmer in southern regions, but a more unsettled and windy picture is expected further north and west .
JUNE FIRST HALF
Temperature: Average or slightly above
Precipitation: Slightly above average
Starts off warm and sunny temps up to 25C /77F in central England and Ireland with a big High out to the west and East- low pressure over Iberia will move north around the second week. by the time we get to mid June we can expect a lot of rain with flooding possible,
JUNE SECOND HALF
Detail::Headline Severe Flooding in places
The low pressure will move off in the continent with higher then normal heights expected to the east and north of the UK so becoming dryer and warmer again and as the air is forced from the continent, I expect temps to reach up to 32C/ 91F in the S.E. but I think unsettled condition over the low countries will develop and slowly move west and north to affected Southern England, some of the rain will be heavy and thundery with the best weather expected in the north & west and over Ireland.
JULY: FIRST HALF
Precipitation: Close to average
Detail:Headline Severe Flooding in places
We will start unsettled and muggier with pressure lower then normal we can expect to see some big storms, I also think somewhere in the UK around this period we could get a repeat such as the Boscastle type floods. Highest temps 28C lowest night 10C
JULY SECOND HALF
High pressure is likely to move north east from the Azores allowing the air to come from the continent, it will become very hot and humid again when temps could reaching 38c 100f with these conditions remaining till the end of the month when I expect it to become more unsettled again with severe thunderstorms and much cooler conditions spreading to most places.
Temperature: Average But at times well above average
Precipitation: Above average
FIRST HALF Detail:
A cool and unsettled start to the month rain and strong winds which could give structural damage to buildings and boats /camping sites etc : warmer condition will spread from the continent but still with some thundery outbreaks.
SECOND HALF Detail:
High Temperatures over Spain I expect this will spread north to the UK around the second week with temps heading to the high 80’s but make the most of the high temps because it seems likely that high pressure will move back or retrograde in the Atlantic this allowing very much cooler weather to spread on a northerly wind down from the Arctic with temps falling to daytime highs of just 13C at best.
So to sum up not a bad forecast overall for the summer, it looks like we will have a very mixed bag some hot sunny days, but also some cool rainy, windy thundery days also and possibly early cooling off at the end of the Summer.