So here is the overview of the 2018/19 winter forecast
December 2018 saw temperatures across most of the country averaging out to between 1 and 2½ degrees above the seasonal normal; the UK monthly mean
temperature was 1.9 °C above the CET average
January was warmer than average, but with a few colder days; towards the end of the month it became much colder generally, bringing monthly-mean temperatures down to exactly the seasonal average.
Very severe Blizzard hit Cornwall at the end of the month with some cars trapped for 11 hours.
February began frosty but it soon became milder, giving a mean anomaly of 2.4 °C above average, provisionally the UK’s second warmest February on record.
March.
Will had average temperatures but not the severe weather I had forecast
To Sum Up!
So to sum up not my best forecast best overall but not that bad thou my March forecast of severe cold did not happen, but as we say it was only for fun ;)
Preliminary forecast updates later.
Not a forecast for snow for lovers at first, but it could get very cold and snowy later in the period!!
METJEFFUK.COM Autumn and Winter forecast 14th September 2018 updated 15-11-18
Severe winter forecast or not?
The coming winter will have many factors running i.e. Colder than normal SST and the fact that we are in a El Niño year Other Factors QBO, Polar Magnetic Shift - plus a solar minimum all goes for a severe winter, having said that but this does not atomically mean we will have a severe winter it can also go the other way to wet and windy.
METJEFFUK 2018 Disclaimer Our long range weather forecasts are currently experimental and are produced using techniques that have not been validated. Our short and medium range weather forecasts (0 to 7 days ahead) make use of data from various weather models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS).European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Metjeffuk.com accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of this web site, or software, or services acquired from metjeffuk.com. And metjeffuk.com reserves the right to change, remove or add new sections to the site without notice. All features on the site including forecasts and data are provided on an ‘as is’ or ‘if available’ basis. Pages and/or applications provided by metjeffuk.com may not be available or may be displaying out of date information when you access them.
HEADLINE METJEFFUK IS GOING FOR A SOMEWHAT COLDER THAN AVERAGE WINTER WITH SEVERE COLD AT TIMES WORST OF THE SNOW IN /FEBRUARY/MARCH
Hi and welcome to my Autumn and Winter Weather Forecast/ Prediction for 2018/19
If you are a regular viewer you will know that my spring and summer forecast for the most part was spot on, just one two blips so I am quite please with the way it went. So here is my next prediction as always I will go back at the end of every month and give a review of my forecast.
VIDEO COMING SOON!
Right so here is my 2018/19 METJEFFUK.COM Autumn and Winter forecast today is the 14th of September 2018
Oh please remember this forecast is what I think might happen METJEFFUK.COM will be not be responsible for any inaccuracy’s in the forecast.
AUTUMN 2018
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Average
October
First Half
This month looks starting off rather stormy, wet and mild temps around the 15c/59f but it will feel cooler then this in the rain. As we go in to say the middle of the month I think we will start to see high pressure building over the UK , It will feel rather warm by day but sharp frosts by night, fog will linger in prone areas such as the vale of York etc.
October
Second half
With High pressure moving north west of the UK a strong and cool NE wind will take over expect day temps around 11C/52F cold by nigh will frost widely across the country
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Average
November
First Half
A cold start to the month with easterly winds, low pressure in the south will make it feel even colder, rain a and gales will affect the southern districts will local flooding possible we may see the rain turning to sleet or snow
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Average
November
Second Half
After heavy rain and some snow in the north I expect to see High pressure return so a dryer period cool and sunny by day but very frosty at night freezing fog will be an issue also the east and south coasts can expect heavy wintry showers some snow is likely.
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Above average
December
First Half
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Above average
With High pressure moving away low pressure will take over I'm expecting very stormy weather with winds possibly storm force at times with all that it will be mild but with some brief cold spells too
December
Second Half
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Above average
From mid month I am expecting a very cold spell with northerly winds and widespread wintry showers giving heavy snow fall in places, but later after near blizzard conditions in the north it will turn milder so at this stage I'm going for a Green Christmas but this may change stay tuned for updates
January
First Half
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Above Average
After a rather stormy mild period the weather is set to turn a lot colder with northern blocking and east or north east winds the beast will return! so very cold heavy snow showers or longer period's of snow possible.
January
Second Half
The cold continues with a biting east wind more snow in the forecast with possible Blizzard conditions in the south west
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Above average
February
First Half
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Above average
A bitterly cold start to the month high over the country keeps it dry but very cold and frosty becoming milder in the SW after a period of snow.
February
Second Half
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Average
After a brief mild spell i am expecting very cold air to returning from the east. snow showers in the east will spread to most other areas giving moderate snowfall in places.
March 2019
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Above Average
I think if I am right March 2019 will go down in the history books as being one of the coldest and snowiest March on record - Very cold air from Siberia combined with low pressure, with the jet stream well south
I expect more snowfall, but it will be the cold that will affect most people in the biting north east wind.
The cold theme continues with more snowfall especially in South West Britain with a very deep low pressure system moving up the English Channel giving Blizzards conditions.
So there you have it the metjeffuk.com 2018/19 winter forecast we will at the end of the March see how accurate or not I have been of course I don't expect it to go week by week as a forecast but the general theme of the forecast will one of a mild start and very cold end, we will see. Thanks again for reading check the video ( coming out soon) love to hear your comments on my blog page, and please don't forget too click on the adverts but as always................. Whatever your weather enjoy it!
Jeff Jacobs Chief Weather Forecaster
Metjeffuk.como here is the Metjeffuk 2019/20 Autumn & Winter forecast
September
Will start off cool and wet but it will soon become dryer with sunny spells later as go towards mid-month it will come more unsettle with low pressure over France moving north so becoming unsettled with thundery rain moving north - towards the end of the month I expect a cold blast of northerly winds and the first snow over the Scottish mountains.
Temps: around average
Rainfall: below average
Weather Warnings: Hill Snow Scotland
October
Will start off cool with wintry showers over Scotland and the north of Ireland, dryer further south with high pressure moving up from France. By mid-month I expect to see a large high over the continent and this will influence our weather so turning dryer everywhere feeling warm in the sun in the south but the north and east may see colder weather for a time. At the end of the month I expect a weather front to move south, following on very cold air and snow showers will start to affect the north of England and Scotland.
Temps: around average
Rainfall: above average
Weather Warnings :heavy rain with Hill Snow in the north
November
Will start off cold with an easterly wind it will gradually become more settled for a time as high than normal heights build from the east and north - I am expecting a deep area of low pressure to develop and this will move in to the south west it will then become very stormy with winds up 80 mph + and it will feel cold despite a south westerly wind.
Temps: around average
Rainfall: above average
Weather Warnings: Severe Winds heavy rain some flooding in the north of England
Winter
December
Will start off wet and cold with some wintry conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent towards mid-month (10th 15th) the high will later move north west allowing a trough to move south introducing much colder air also a deep low pressure system will spins off the Atlantic as this low hits the very much colder air moving south I expect to see blizzard conditions for a time, This will be repeated around Christmas so if I'm right it will be a very white Christmas! This type of wintry weather will continue through to the new year’s eve when another deep low will spread more snow.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards
January
As we start the month it will be very stormy with widespread rain /snow showers and very icy conditions but as we move towards say mid-month I am expecting more settled conditions to develop with a large area of high pressure over the continent but this will give severe frosts at night - I am also forecasting a strong SSW and this will have a major factor over our weather with the large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia and this introducing very cold Siberian air.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal
Weather Warnings: turning much colder
February
Will start off very cold with easterly winds and snow flurries or longer spells of snow, I'm expecting a very deep area of low pressure to move in off the Atlantic this will dive in to Northern France as this hits the very cold air I am expecting blizzard like conditions to affect most of SW and Southern UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will be cold or very cold and snowy.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall /Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards unseasonably cold
I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk
So keep coming back.
But whatever your weather enjoy it!
bye for now
Jeff
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
METJEFFUK 2019 Disclaimer Our long range weather forecasts are currently experimental and are produced using techniques that have not been validated. Our short and medium range weather forecasts (0 to 7 days ahead) make use of data from various weather models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS).European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Metjeffuk.com accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of this web site, or software, or services acquired from metjeffuk.com. And metjeffuk.com reserves the right to change, remove or add new sections to the site without notice. All features on the site including forecasts and data are provided on an ‘as is’ or ‘if available’ basis. Pages and/or applications provided by metjeffuk.com may not be available or may be displaying out of date information when you access them.
The Metjeffuk 2019/20 Autumn & Winter forecast dated 16-9-2019
December 2018 saw temperatures across most of the country averaging out to between 1 and 2½ degrees above the seasonal normal; the UK monthly mean
temperature was 1.9 °C above the CET average
January was warmer than average, but with a few colder days; towards the end of the month it became much colder generally, bringing monthly-mean temperatures down to exactly the seasonal average.
Very severe Blizzard hit Cornwall at the end of the month with some cars trapped for 11 hours.
February began frosty but it soon became milder, giving a mean anomaly of 2.4 °C above average, provisionally the UK’s second warmest February on record.
March.
Will had average temperatures but not the severe weather I had forecast
To Sum Up!
So to sum up not my best forecast best overall but not that bad thou my March forecast of severe cold did not happen, but as we say it was only for fun ;)
Preliminary forecast updates later.
Not a forecast for snow for lovers at first, but it could get very cold and snowy later in the period!!
METJEFFUK.COM Autumn and Winter forecast 14th September 2018 updated 15-11-18
Severe winter forecast or not?
The coming winter will have many factors running i.e. Colder than normal SST and the fact that we are in a El Niño year Other Factors QBO, Polar Magnetic Shift - plus a solar minimum all goes for a severe winter, having said that but this does not atomically mean we will have a severe winter it can also go the other way to wet and windy.
METJEFFUK 2018 Disclaimer Our long range weather forecasts are currently experimental and are produced using techniques that have not been validated. Our short and medium range weather forecasts (0 to 7 days ahead) make use of data from various weather models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS).European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Metjeffuk.com accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of this web site, or software, or services acquired from metjeffuk.com. And metjeffuk.com reserves the right to change, remove or add new sections to the site without notice. All features on the site including forecasts and data are provided on an ‘as is’ or ‘if available’ basis. Pages and/or applications provided by metjeffuk.com may not be available or may be displaying out of date information when you access them.
HEADLINE METJEFFUK IS GOING FOR A SOMEWHAT COLDER THAN AVERAGE WINTER WITH SEVERE COLD AT TIMES WORST OF THE SNOW IN /FEBRUARY/MARCH
Hi and welcome to my Autumn and Winter Weather Forecast/ Prediction for 2018/19
If you are a regular viewer you will know that my spring and summer forecast for the most part was spot on, just one two blips so I am quite please with the way it went. So here is my next prediction as always I will go back at the end of every month and give a review of my forecast.
VIDEO COMING SOON!
Right so here is my 2018/19 METJEFFUK.COM Autumn and Winter forecast today is the 14th of September 2018
Oh please remember this forecast is what I think might happen METJEFFUK.COM will be not be responsible for any inaccuracy’s in the forecast.
AUTUMN 2018
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Average
October
First Half
This month looks starting off rather stormy, wet and mild temps around the 15c/59f but it will feel cooler then this in the rain. As we go in to say the middle of the month I think we will start to see high pressure building over the UK , It will feel rather warm by day but sharp frosts by night, fog will linger in prone areas such as the vale of York etc.
October
Second half
With High pressure moving north west of the UK a strong and cool NE wind will take over expect day temps around 11C/52F cold by nigh will frost widely across the country
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Average
November
First Half
A cold start to the month with easterly winds, low pressure in the south will make it feel even colder, rain a and gales will affect the southern districts will local flooding possible we may see the rain turning to sleet or snow
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Average
November
Second Half
After heavy rain and some snow in the north I expect to see High pressure return so a dryer period cool and sunny by day but very frosty at night freezing fog will be an issue also the east and south coasts can expect heavy wintry showers some snow is likely.
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Above average
December
First Half
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Above average
With High pressure moving away low pressure will take over I'm expecting very stormy weather with winds possibly storm force at times with all that it will be mild but with some brief cold spells too
December
Second Half
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Above average
From mid month I am expecting a very cold spell with northerly winds and widespread wintry showers giving heavy snow fall in places, but later after near blizzard conditions in the north it will turn milder so at this stage I'm going for a Green Christmas but this may change stay tuned for updates
January
First Half
Temperature: Below Average
Precipitation: Above Average
After a rather stormy mild period the weather is set to turn a lot colder with northern blocking and east or north east winds the beast will return! so very cold heavy snow showers or longer period's of snow possible.
January
Second Half
The cold continues with a biting east wind more snow in the forecast with possible Blizzard conditions in the south west
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Above average
February
First Half
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Above average
A bitterly cold start to the month high over the country keeps it dry but very cold and frosty becoming milder in the SW after a period of snow.
February
Second Half
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Average
After a brief mild spell i am expecting very cold air to returning from the east. snow showers in the east will spread to most other areas giving moderate snowfall in places.
March 2019
Temperature: Severe Cold!
Precipitation: Above Average
I think if I am right March 2019 will go down in the history books as being one of the coldest and snowiest March on record - Very cold air from Siberia combined with low pressure, with the jet stream well south
I expect more snowfall, but it will be the cold that will affect most people in the biting north east wind.
The cold theme continues with more snowfall especially in South West Britain with a very deep low pressure system moving up the English Channel giving Blizzards conditions.
So there you have it the metjeffuk.com 2018/19 winter forecast we will at the end of the March see how accurate or not I have been of course I don't expect it to go week by week as a forecast but the general theme of the forecast will one of a mild start and very cold end, we will see. Thanks again for reading check the video ( coming out soon) love to hear your comments on my blog page, and please don't forget too click on the adverts but as always................. Whatever your weather enjoy it!
Jeff Jacobs Chief Weather Forecaster
Metjeffuk.como here is the Metjeffuk 2019/20 Autumn & Winter forecast
September
Will start off cool and wet but it will soon become dryer with sunny spells later as go towards mid-month it will come more unsettle with low pressure over France moving north so becoming unsettled with thundery rain moving north - towards the end of the month I expect a cold blast of northerly winds and the first snow over the Scottish mountains.
Temps: around average
Rainfall: below average
Weather Warnings: Hill Snow Scotland
October
Will start off cool with wintry showers over Scotland and the north of Ireland, dryer further south with high pressure moving up from France. By mid-month I expect to see a large high over the continent and this will influence our weather so turning dryer everywhere feeling warm in the sun in the south but the north and east may see colder weather for a time. At the end of the month I expect a weather front to move south, following on very cold air and snow showers will start to affect the north of England and Scotland.
Temps: around average
Rainfall: above average
Weather Warnings :heavy rain with Hill Snow in the north
November
Will start off cold with an easterly wind it will gradually become more settled for a time as high than normal heights build from the east and north - I am expecting a deep area of low pressure to develop and this will move in to the south west it will then become very stormy with winds up 80 mph + and it will feel cold despite a south westerly wind.
Temps: around average
Rainfall: above average
Weather Warnings: Severe Winds heavy rain some flooding in the north of England
Winter
December
Will start off wet and cold with some wintry conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent towards mid-month (10th 15th) the high will later move north west allowing a trough to move south introducing much colder air also a deep low pressure system will spins off the Atlantic as this low hits the very much colder air moving south I expect to see blizzard conditions for a time, This will be repeated around Christmas so if I'm right it will be a very white Christmas! This type of wintry weather will continue through to the new year’s eve when another deep low will spread more snow.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards
January
As we start the month it will be very stormy with widespread rain /snow showers and very icy conditions but as we move towards say mid-month I am expecting more settled conditions to develop with a large area of high pressure over the continent but this will give severe frosts at night - I am also forecasting a strong SSW and this will have a major factor over our weather with the large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia and this introducing very cold Siberian air.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal
Weather Warnings: turning much colder
February
Will start off very cold with easterly winds and snow flurries or longer spells of snow, I'm expecting a very deep area of low pressure to move in off the Atlantic this will dive in to Northern France as this hits the very cold air I am expecting blizzard like conditions to affect most of SW and Southern UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will be cold or very cold and snowy.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall /Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards unseasonably cold
I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk
So keep coming back.
But whatever your weather enjoy it!
bye for now
Jeff
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
METJEFFUK 2019 Disclaimer Our long range weather forecasts are currently experimental and are produced using techniques that have not been validated. Our short and medium range weather forecasts (0 to 7 days ahead) make use of data from various weather models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS).European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Metjeffuk.com accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of this web site, or software, or services acquired from metjeffuk.com. And metjeffuk.com reserves the right to change, remove or add new sections to the site without notice. All features on the site including forecasts and data are provided on an ‘as is’ or ‘if available’ basis. Pages and/or applications provided by metjeffuk.com may not be available or may be displaying out of date information when you access them.
The Metjeffuk 2019/20 Autumn & Winter forecast dated 16-9-2019
This is the written version the metjeffuk 2018 summer forecast video will follow soon.
Overview
Below average start to may . Temperatures probably at or little below average. Signal is for less rainfall, but still thunderstorms with severe hailstorms are possible, there will be a slight bias towards dryer than average in England and Wales.
MAY: FIRST HALF
Temperature: Below average at first quickly recovering to the CET normal or slight above normal.
Precipitation: Close to or below the average.
Detail:
The first half of the month will start with unsettled weather and rather chilly conditions across the country.an increasing threat of Thunderstorms with severe Hailstorms.
MAY: SECOND HALF
Detail:
Temperatures should recover in the last two weeks to normal or above, Becoming increasingly warm in southern and central regions, but probably remaining close to average in the north west England, Northern Ireland Scotland and near coasts . For a time it may also become significantly drier and warmer in southern regions, but a more unsettled and windy picture is expected further north and west .
JUNE FIRST HALF
Temperature: Average or slightly above
Precipitation: Slightly above average
Detail:
Starts off warm and sunny temps up to 25C /77F in central England and Ireland with a big High out to the west and East- low pressure over Iberia will move north around the second week. by the time we get to mid June we can expect a lot of rain with flooding possible,
JUNE SECOND HALF
Detail::Headline Severe Flooding in places
The low pressure will move off in the continent with higher then normal heights expected to the east and north of the UK so becoming dryer and warmer again and as the air is forced from the continent, I expect temps to reach up to 32C/ 91F in the S.E. but I think unsettled condition over the low countries will develop and slowly move west and north to affected Southern England, some of the rain will be heavy and thundery with the best weather expected in the north & west and over Ireland.
JULY: FIRST HALF
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Close to average
Detail:Headline Severe Flooding in places
We will start unsettled and muggier with pressure lower then normal we can expect to see some big storms, I also think somewhere in the UK around this period we could get a repeat such as the Boscastle type floods. Highest temps 28C lowest night 10C
JULY SECOND HALF
Detail:
High pressure is likely to move north east from the Azores allowing the air to come from the continent, it will become very hot and humid again when temps could reaching 38c 100f with these conditions remaining till the end of the month when I expect it to become more unsettled again with severe thunderstorms and much cooler conditions spreading to most places.
AUGUST
Temperature: Average But at times well above average
Precipitation: Above average
FIRST HALF
Detail:
A cool and unsettled start to the month rain and strong winds which could give structural damage to buildings and boats /camping sites etc : warmer condition will spread from the continent but still with some thundery outbreaks.
SECOND HALF
Detail:
High Temperatures over Spain I expect this will spread north to the UK around the second week with temps heading to the high 80’s but make the most of the high temps because it seems likely that high pressure will move back or retrograde in the Atlantic this allowing very much cooler weather to spread on a northerly wind down from the Arctic with temps falling to daytime highs of just 13C at best.
So to sum up not a bad forecast overall for the summer, it looks like we will have a very mixed bag some hot sunny days, but also some cool rainy, windy thundery days also and possibly early cooling off at the end of the Summer.
metjeffuk 17-4
Overview
Below average start to may . Temperatures probably at or little below average. Signal is for less rainfall, but still thunderstorms with severe hailstorms are possible, there will be a slight bias towards dryer than average in England and Wales.
MAY: FIRST HALF
Temperature: Below average at first quickly recovering to the CET normal or slight above normal.
Precipitation: Close to or below the average.
Detail:
The first half of the month will start with unsettled weather and rather chilly conditions across the country.an increasing threat of Thunderstorms with severe Hailstorms.
MAY: SECOND HALF
Detail:
Temperatures should recover in the last two weeks to normal or above, Becoming increasingly warm in southern and central regions, but probably remaining close to average in the north west England, Northern Ireland Scotland and near coasts . For a time it may also become significantly drier and warmer in southern regions, but a more unsettled and windy picture is expected further north and west .
JUNE FIRST HALF
Temperature: Average or slightly above
Precipitation: Slightly above average
Detail:
Starts off warm and sunny temps up to 25C /77F in central England and Ireland with a big High out to the west and East- low pressure over Iberia will move north around the second week. by the time we get to mid June we can expect a lot of rain with flooding possible,
JUNE SECOND HALF
Detail::Headline Severe Flooding in places
The low pressure will move off in the continent with higher then normal heights expected to the east and north of the UK so becoming dryer and warmer again and as the air is forced from the continent, I expect temps to reach up to 32C/ 91F in the S.E. but I think unsettled condition over the low countries will develop and slowly move west and north to affected Southern England, some of the rain will be heavy and thundery with the best weather expected in the north & west and over Ireland.
JULY: FIRST HALF
Temperature: Average
Precipitation: Close to average
Detail:Headline Severe Flooding in places
We will start unsettled and muggier with pressure lower then normal we can expect to see some big storms, I also think somewhere in the UK around this period we could get a repeat such as the Boscastle type floods. Highest temps 28C lowest night 10C
JULY SECOND HALF
Detail:
High pressure is likely to move north east from the Azores allowing the air to come from the continent, it will become very hot and humid again when temps could reaching 38c 100f with these conditions remaining till the end of the month when I expect it to become more unsettled again with severe thunderstorms and much cooler conditions spreading to most places.
AUGUST
Temperature: Average But at times well above average
Precipitation: Above average
FIRST HALF
Detail:
A cool and unsettled start to the month rain and strong winds which could give structural damage to buildings and boats /camping sites etc : warmer condition will spread from the continent but still with some thundery outbreaks.
SECOND HALF
Detail:
High Temperatures over Spain I expect this will spread north to the UK around the second week with temps heading to the high 80’s but make the most of the high temps because it seems likely that high pressure will move back or retrograde in the Atlantic this allowing very much cooler weather to spread on a northerly wind down from the Arctic with temps falling to daytime highs of just 13C at best.
So to sum up not a bad forecast overall for the summer, it looks like we will have a very mixed bag some hot sunny days, but also some cool rainy, windy thundery days also and possibly early cooling off at the end of the Summer.
metjeffuk 17-4
