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The coming winter will have many factors running i.e.  Colder than normal SST La Niña is the cold ENSO phase while El Niño is the warm phase. there is a difference in temperatures, there are also pressure changes.and the fact that we are in a LA NiñA year  Other Factors QBO, Polar Magnetic Shift - THIS COULD mean we will have a severe winter AHEAD

September

Largely steeled month but with some rainy periods to temps around normal but some warm spells but also some very cold spells with snow likely of the Scottish hills.





                                       October 24
A cold start to October with night frosts High Pressure with the weather dry  this pattern will continual albeit with the occasional low pressure blip turning much colder at the end of the month.




November 

Will start mild and very windy with mobile westerly airstream High  pressure may settle over the UK briefly.
   on to mid-month when we may have brief cold snap some of the showers may be wintry with some snow showers over high ground in the north it will gradually become more settled for a time as high than normal heights build from the North east.
 
Towards the end of the month, I'm expecting a deep area of low pressure to develop, and this will move into the southwest it will then become very stormy winds up to 80 mph + and it will feel cold despite a southerly wind.


Temps: average

Rainfall: average 

Weather Warnings:    Severe Winds

  Winter

December

Will start off  wet and cold with some wintry  conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent  around mid-month (14th 15th) the high will later move south allowing a trough  to move south introducing much colder air with wintry showers frosts at night, it is likely that High pressure will once again build over the UK so cold days and severe frosts at night  as for Christmas  going  for a  an unsettled one cold enough for snow heavy in places a bitter NE. 





​festive period.  

Temps: Average, mild at first  Turning very cold and snowy

Rainfall/ Snowfall / rain :  above normal

Weather warnings:  Severe Frosts at night

 

  January

After a quit period with High pressure  the weather will turn very stormy with widespread floods across the country and as the air gets colder this will turn to snow  it will become very wintry, giving very icy conditions                     
Mid-Month

Towards say  mid-month I am expecting more settled conditions to develop with a large area of high pressure   over the continent but this will give once again severe frosts at night - I am also predicting a strong  SSW and this will have a major factor over our weather with the large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia and this introducing very cold Siberian air.

 

Temps: below normal

Rainfall/ Snowfall: Above  normal

Weather Warnings: turning much colder  

 

February

Will start off very cold with easterly winds and snow flurries but in to the second week I am expecting a very deep area of low pressure to move in off the Atlantic as this hits the very cold air I am expecting a major blizzard to affect most of the UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will cold or very cold and snowy.

Temps: below normal

Rainfall /Snowfall : above normal

Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards  

I will be giving updates throughout the  winter here at Metjeffuk

So keep coming back.

But whatever your weather enjoy it!
bye for now

Jeff
The Metjeffuk 2024/25 Autumn & Winter forecast  dated 15-09-2024

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