A major SSW is now expected!
In 2014 Metjeffuk named a very cold spell of weather from the East as “The Beast from The East” and later in 2018 the Beast from The East returned and this is when the tabloids took hold on the rest is history,
Well now a major sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is expected in the next week. But will it lead to a return of wintry weather? In the metjeffuk 2022/23 long range winter forecast [dated 1-11-22] we predicted a major SSW event in February 2023 looks like we were about three possibly four weeks out signs are increasingly showing warming in the North Pole and it looks like we could be having a major event happening, will keep you updated on this here at the METJEFFUK.COM website
WHAT IS POLAR STRATOSPHERIC WARMING?
A stratospheric sudden warming is perhaps one of the most radical changes of weather that is observed on our planet. Within the space of a week, North Pole temperatures can increase by more than 50 K (90°F). For example, on 17 January 2009 the temperature at the North Pole near 30 km was about 200 K. Over a 5-day period, the temperature increased to 260 K (a change of 60 K or 108°F).
These stratospheric sudden warming are caused by atmospheric waves that originate in the troposphere. The waves are forced by the large-scale mountain systems of the northern hemisphere and the land-sea contrasts between the continents and oceans. The waves are also characterized by their very large scales, typically referred to as planetary-scale waves. The stratospheric wind structure filters the smaller scale waves, only allowing the planetary waves to propagate into the stratosphere. As the waves move upward into the stratosphere, they have two effects: first they will often push the polar vortex away from the North Pole—bringing warmer mid latitude air pole ward, and second, they produce a downward motion field that also warms the polar region.
Beast From The East in late February / March?
What would the impact of a SSW on the UK's weather? well, the air is at Its coldest this time of the year likewise are the Sea surface temperature (SST) too, one thing we must also bear in mind is the days are rapidly lengthening now, and the sun is getting stronger but as 2018 showed it is still possible to record cold days with temperatures at or below freezing in Britain even in mid-March.
Which models are best to Watch?
GEFS ECM ENS ensemble models are the places to look for signs.
So its going to get very cold but for this to happen more things need to fall into place for the Beast From The East to return and give a severe cold spell would require 850hPa temperatures to drop below -10C.
We will keep you keep updated here at Metjeffuk.com
Take care
Jeff
In 2014 Metjeffuk named a very cold spell of weather from the East as “The Beast from The East” and later in 2018 the Beast from The East returned and this is when the tabloids took hold on the rest is history,
Well now a major sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is expected in the next week. But will it lead to a return of wintry weather? In the metjeffuk 2022/23 long range winter forecast [dated 1-11-22] we predicted a major SSW event in February 2023 looks like we were about three possibly four weeks out signs are increasingly showing warming in the North Pole and it looks like we could be having a major event happening, will keep you updated on this here at the METJEFFUK.COM website
WHAT IS POLAR STRATOSPHERIC WARMING?
A stratospheric sudden warming is perhaps one of the most radical changes of weather that is observed on our planet. Within the space of a week, North Pole temperatures can increase by more than 50 K (90°F). For example, on 17 January 2009 the temperature at the North Pole near 30 km was about 200 K. Over a 5-day period, the temperature increased to 260 K (a change of 60 K or 108°F).
These stratospheric sudden warming are caused by atmospheric waves that originate in the troposphere. The waves are forced by the large-scale mountain systems of the northern hemisphere and the land-sea contrasts between the continents and oceans. The waves are also characterized by their very large scales, typically referred to as planetary-scale waves. The stratospheric wind structure filters the smaller scale waves, only allowing the planetary waves to propagate into the stratosphere. As the waves move upward into the stratosphere, they have two effects: first they will often push the polar vortex away from the North Pole—bringing warmer mid latitude air pole ward, and second, they produce a downward motion field that also warms the polar region.
Beast From The East in late February / March?
What would the impact of a SSW on the UK's weather? well, the air is at Its coldest this time of the year likewise are the Sea surface temperature (SST) too, one thing we must also bear in mind is the days are rapidly lengthening now, and the sun is getting stronger but as 2018 showed it is still possible to record cold days with temperatures at or below freezing in Britain even in mid-March.
Which models are best to Watch?
GEFS ECM ENS ensemble models are the places to look for signs.
So its going to get very cold but for this to happen more things need to fall into place for the Beast From The East to return and give a severe cold spell would require 850hPa temperatures to drop below -10C.
We will keep you keep updated here at Metjeffuk.com
Take care
Jeff
