The coming winter will have many factors running i.e. Colder than normal SST and the fact that we are in a El Niño year Other Factors QBO, Polar Magnetic Shift -but this does not atomically mean we will have a severe winter it can also go the other way to wet and windy.
The forecast
Autumn
October
Unsettled with rain at times especially in the north the south will become very warm with plenty of sunshine it will be cool and wet in the north and over Scotland together with the north of Ireland ,
MID-MONTH
After a dry spell low pressure will bring a spell of heavy rain and thunderstorms it will then turn much colder with the north seeing wintry showers hail and snow over the hills, I'm expecting a Scandinavia high to build dragging cold NW winds with frost at night.
Temps: below average
Rainfall: above average
Weather Warnings :Hill Snow
November
Will start off cold and wintry still some snow showers over high ground it will gradually become more settled for a time as high than normal heights build from the east - I expecting a deep area of low pressure to develop and this will move in to the south west it will then become very stormy winds up 80 mph + and it will feel cold despite a southerly wind.
Temps: average
Rainfall: average
Weather Warnings: Severe Winds
Winter
December
Will start off wet and cold with some wintry conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent around mid-month (14th 15th) the high will later move south allowing a trough to move south introducing much colder air also a deep low pressure system will spins off the Atlantic as this low hits the very much colder air moving south I expect to see blizzard conditions for a time around Christmas so if I'm right it will be a very white Christmas ! This type of wintry weather will continue through to the new year’s eve when another deep low will spread more snow.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards
January
As we start the month it will be very stormy with widespread snow showers and very icy conditions but as we move towards say mid-month I am expecting more settled conditions to develop with a large area of high pressure over the continent but this wiil give severe frosts at night - I am also forecasting a strong SSW and this will have a major factor over our weather with the large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia and this introducing very cold Siberian air
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : normal
Weather Warnings: turning much colder Some blizzards likely
February
Will start off very cold with easterly winds and snow flurries but in to the second week I am expecting a very deep area of low pressure to move in off the Atlantic as this hits the very cold air I am expecting a major blizzard to affect most of the UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will cold or very cold and snowy.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall /Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards
I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk
So keep coming back.
But whatever your weather enjoy it!
bye for now
Jeff
The Metjeffuk 2023/24 Autumn & Winter forecast dated 6-9-2023
The forecast
Autumn
October
Unsettled with rain at times especially in the north the south will become very warm with plenty of sunshine it will be cool and wet in the north and over Scotland together with the north of Ireland ,
MID-MONTH
After a dry spell low pressure will bring a spell of heavy rain and thunderstorms it will then turn much colder with the north seeing wintry showers hail and snow over the hills, I'm expecting a Scandinavia high to build dragging cold NW winds with frost at night.
Temps: below average
Rainfall: above average
Weather Warnings :Hill Snow
November
Will start off cold and wintry still some snow showers over high ground it will gradually become more settled for a time as high than normal heights build from the east - I expecting a deep area of low pressure to develop and this will move in to the south west it will then become very stormy winds up 80 mph + and it will feel cold despite a southerly wind.
Temps: average
Rainfall: average
Weather Warnings: Severe Winds
Winter
December
Will start off wet and cold with some wintry conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent around mid-month (14th 15th) the high will later move south allowing a trough to move south introducing much colder air also a deep low pressure system will spins off the Atlantic as this low hits the very much colder air moving south I expect to see blizzard conditions for a time around Christmas so if I'm right it will be a very white Christmas ! This type of wintry weather will continue through to the new year’s eve when another deep low will spread more snow.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards
January
As we start the month it will be very stormy with widespread snow showers and very icy conditions but as we move towards say mid-month I am expecting more settled conditions to develop with a large area of high pressure over the continent but this wiil give severe frosts at night - I am also forecasting a strong SSW and this will have a major factor over our weather with the large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia and this introducing very cold Siberian air
Temps: below normal
Rainfall/Snowfall : normal
Weather Warnings: turning much colder Some blizzards likely
February
Will start off very cold with easterly winds and snow flurries but in to the second week I am expecting a very deep area of low pressure to move in off the Atlantic as this hits the very cold air I am expecting a major blizzard to affect most of the UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will cold or very cold and snowy.
Temps: below normal
Rainfall /Snowfall : above normal
Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards
I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk
So keep coming back.
But whatever your weather enjoy it!
bye for now
Jeff
The Metjeffuk 2023/24 Autumn & Winter forecast dated 6-9-2023
