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The coming winter will have many factors running i.e.  Colder than normal SST and the fact that we are in a El Niño year Other Factors QBO, Polar Magnetic Shift -but this does not atomically mean we will have  a severe winter it can also go the other way to wet and windy.



The forecast

Autumn


October

Unsettled with rain at times  especially in the north the south will become very warm with plenty of sunshine  it will  be cool and wet in the north and  over Scotland  together with the north of Ireland ,

MID-MONTH

After a dry spell  low pressure will bring a spell of heavy rain and thunderstorms it will then turn much colder with the north seeing wintry showers hail and snow over the hills, I'm expecting a Scandinavia high to build  dragging cold NW winds with frost at night. 


Temps: below average

Rainfall: above average 

Weather Warnings :Hill Snow

 
November

Will start off cold and wintry still some snow showers over high ground it will gradually become more settled for a time as high than normal heights build from the east  - I expecting a deep area of low pressure to develop  and this will move in to the south west it will then become very stormy winds up 80 mph + and it will feel cold despite a southerly wind.

Temps: average

Rainfall: average 

Weather Warnings:    Severe Winds

  Winter

December

Will start off  wet and cold  with some wintry  conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent  around mid-month (14th 15th) the high will later move south allowing a trough  to move south introducing much colder air also a deep low pressure system will spins off the Atlantic  as this low hits the very much colder air moving south I expect to see blizzard conditions for a time around Christmas so  if  I'm right it will be a very white Christmas !
​This type of wintry weather will continue through to the new year’s eve when another deep low will spread more snow  to the south and SW. 


Temps: below normal

Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal

Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards  

 

  January

As we start the month it will be very stormy with widespread snow showers and very icy conditions but  as we move towards say  mid-month I am expecting more settled conditions to develop with a large area of high pressure  over the continent but this wiil give  severe frosts at night - I am  also forecasting a strong  SSW and this will have a major factor over our weather with the large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia and this introducing very cold Siberian air

 

Temps: below normal

Rainfall/Snowfall :  normal

Weather Warnings: turning much colder  Some blizzards likely

 

February

Will start off very cold with easterly winds and snow flurries but in to the second week I am  expecting  a very deep area of low pressure to move in off the Atlantic as this hits the very cold air I am expecting a major blizzard to affect most of the UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will cold or very cold and snowy.

Temps: below normal

Rainfall /Snowfall : above normal

Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards  

I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk

So keep coming back.

But whatever your weather enjoy it!
bye for now

Jeff
The Metjeffuk 2023/24 Autumn & Winter forecast  dated 6-9-2023

So a colder than average Autumn with Winter seeing mild stormy spells and at times very cold snowy times too with frequent blizzards  

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