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Severe winter forecast or not?                 

The coming winter will have many factors running i.e.  Colder than normal SST and the fact that we are in a El Niño year Other Factors QBO, Polar Magnetic Shift -but this does not atomically mean we will have  a severe winter it can also go the other way to wet and windy.



The forecast

Autumn

September

  Will start off cool and wet but it will soon become dryer with sunny spells later as go towards mid-month it will come more unsettle with low pressure over France moving north so becoming unsettled with thundery rain moving north - towards the end of the month I expect a cold blast of northerly winds and the first snow over the Scottish mountains.

Temps: average

Rainfall: below average

Weather Warnings:  Hill Snow

October

Will start off cool with wintry showers over Scotland and the north of Ireland , dryer further south with high pressure moving up from France. By mid-month I expect to see a large high over the continent and this will influence our weather so turning dryer everywhere feeling warm in the sun.    At the end of the month I expect a weather front to move south, following on  very cold air and snow showers will start to affect the north of England and Scotland.

Temps: average

Rainfall: below average 

Weather Warnings :Hill Snow

 
November

Will start off cold and wintry still some snow showers over high ground it will gradually become more settled for a time as high than normal heights build from the east  - I expecting a deep area of low pressure to develop  and this will move in to the south west it will then become very stormy winds up 80 mph + and it will feel cold despite a southerly wind.

Temps: average

Rainfall: below average 

Weather Warnings:    Severe Winds

  Winter

December

Will start off  wet and cold with some wintry  conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent  around mid-month (14th 15th) the high will later move south allowing a trough  to move south introducing much colder air also a deep low pressure system will spins off the Atlantic  as this low hits the very much colder air moving south I expect to see blizzard conditions for a time around Christmas so  if  I'm right it will be a very white Christmas ! This type of wintry weather will continue through to the new year’s eve when another deep low will spread more snow.

Temps: below normal

Rainfall/Snowfall : above normal

Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards  

 

  January

As we start the month it will be very stormy with widespread snow showers and very icy conditions but  as we move towards say  mid-month I am expecting more settled conditions to develop with a large area of high pressure  over the continent but this wiil give  severe frosts at night - I am  also forecasting a strong  SSW and this will have a major factor over our weather with the large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia and this introducing very cold Siberian air

 

Temps: below normal

Rainfall/Snowfall :  normal

Weather Warnings: turning much colder  

 

February

Will start off very cold with easterly winds and snow flurries but in to the second week I am  expecting  a very deep area of low pressure to move in off the Atlantic as this hits the very cold air I am expecting a major blizzard to affect most of the UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will cold or very cold and snowy.

Temps: below normal

Rainfall /Snowfall : above normal

Weather warnings: Stormy Blizzards  

I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk

So keep coming back.

But whatever your weather enjoy it!
bye for now

Jeff
The Metjeffuk 2015/16 Autumn & Winter forecast  dated 6-9-2015
WINTER UPDATE 2014/15 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN THE PAGE
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Right so here is my 2014/15
METJEFFUK.COM
Winter Forecast
today is the 1st of September 2014

Please remember this forecast is just for fun and it is  what I think might happen METJEFFUK.COM will be not be responsible for any inaccuracy’s in the forecast. 

Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.

((((((UPDATED WINTER 2014/15 FORECAST))))))




Seasonal outlook -
September 1st, 2014
Winter Ahead:
STARTS STORMY AND WET
ENDS  VERY COLD WITH SNOW


Issued: Monday1st September  2014
Forecaster: Jeff Jacobs

October
This month will start off rather cloudy with a lot of windy wet weather in the north and over Ireland, And it  looks like  this sort of weather will move further South in to Western and southern areas  on the mild side in most parts at first.
Second Half
  As we go in the end of October I think we will have the first  taste of winter with a strong and very cold northerly wind coming strait down from the arctic  this will give snow showers to most parts in the north and over high ground above 300mts in the south feeling cold with night frosts.



November

This month will start off very stormy with winds up 80 mph heavy rain and in the far north cold enough for snow -temps above normal  in the south feeling cold in the north.

Second Half

As go in the second half I think a very strong jet stream will develop bringing rain and strong winds back across the whole country it will be mild or very mild- Towards the end of the month I expect high pressure to move up from France this will give southern  areas some what drier conditions mild by day but frosty at night. but staying wet and windy and feeling rather cold with snow over the hills  further north.


December


This month will be become very stormy again with winds up 85 mph heavy rain and in the north cold enough for snow even  at lower levels with drifting in the winds in the north , it will be cold in the south but I  think here  precipitation will most likely be of rail or sleet rather than snow at this stage.

Second Half

As we go in to the second half of December low pressure will move  into the France and the low countries with higher than normal heights over Scandinavia this  will  give us all an east to north east winds and with time these winds will become colder and colder with a lot of the  precipitation starting to turn more and more wintry .

Christmas Prediction
 [Dated 1st of September 2014]

**so my all important  prediction is  for a white Christmas for most of us everywhere but more likely towards the north and east  

January
After a cold end to December January will start less cold but i expect  a very deep depression  will move across northern Scotland  following on behind  very cold air from the arctic this will give widespread snow to all areas 

Second  Half

Snow showers almost anywhere but especially over high ground above 100mts  giving blizzard conditions at times temperatures  getting down to minus 15c in parts of Scotland as the jet will pushed further south in the med giving wild weather down there too. Snow Showers dieing out later as high pressure moves in from the Atlantic



February

With the high pressure moving off in to the continent I expect some very low day and especially night temperatures with freezing fog in central and eastern areas in Scotland ,England, and Ireland.

Second Half

The high will be replace with  low pressure  that will sink south from the arctic  along with snow which could be heavy and prolonged giving 1-2mts in places [around 6ft]    I expect  February will be a another very cold wintry  month but there will be one or  two less cold interludes these around  18th 19th and 20th. 


March

I think if I am right  March 2015 will go down in the history books as being the coldest and snowiest March on record - Very cold air from Siberia combined with low pressure, with the  jet stream well south
I expect  more snow fall, but  it will be  the cold that will  affect most people in the biting north east wind.

Second Half

The cold theme continues with more snow fall especially in South West Britain with a very deep low pressure system moving up the English Channel giving Blizzards conditions here I 'm going for a date around the 21st of March this is defiantly one too watch!
So there you have it the metjeffuk.com 14/15 winter forecast we will at the of the March see  how accurate or not I have been of course I don't expect it to go week by week as forecast but the general theme  of the  forecast will one of a mild start and very cold end, we will see.
Thanks again for reading check the video
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Whatever your weather enjoy it
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Disclaimer
Our long range weather forecasts are currently experimental and are produced using techniques that have not been validated. Our short and medium range weather forecasts (0 to 7days ahead) make use of data from various weather  models  such as the Global Forecast System (GFS).European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Metjeffuk.com  accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of this web site, or software, or services acquired from metjeffuk.com. And metjeffuk.com  reserves the right to change, remove or add new sections to the site without notice. All features on the site including forecasts and data are provided on an ‘as is’ or ‘if available’ basis. Pages and/or applications provided by  metjeffuk.com may not be available or may be displaying out of date information when you access them.
     
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Overview
A colder then  average spring.

Temperature
The spring is expected to be colder than average with night frosts above normal over the 3 month period.      

Precipitation
Close to or slightly below  average over the 3 month period.  
March
Starts off wet and windy but soon becoming dryer with high pressure near or over the country. Last two week will become more unsettlede and colder with rain and strong winds and as it gets colder snow will be in the forecast severe night frosts.
April
Temperature: Below average  
Precipitation: Close to or below  average
FIRST HALF
The first half of the month will start with unsettled weather and rather chilly conditions across the country. Snow will be in the forecast the first two weeks but Temperatures should recover later. 
SECOND HALF
The second half of the month is expected to start off changeable in the north west, but drier further south and east. Temperatures at this stage possibly  average in southern regions, and close to or slightly above average in the north. Later in the period dryer  conditions probably extending further north .  Temperatures becoming close to  average.
MAY
Overview
A  average start to may . Temperatures probably at or  little below  average.  Signal is for more rainfall levels these in the form of thunderstorms with severe hailstorms and the odd  tornado possible, there will be a  slight bias towards dryer  than average in the north.
FIRST HALF
Temperature: Below average at first quickly recovering CET normal or above normal.   
Precipitation: Close to or above the  average. The first half of the month will start with unsettled weather and rather chilly conditions across the country.an increasing threat of Thunderstorms and severe Hailstorms.
SECOND HALF
Temperatures should recover in the last two weeks to normal  or above, Becoming increasingly warm in southern and central regions, but probably remaining close to average in the north and near coasts . For a time it may also become significantly drier and warmer  in southern regions, but a more unsettled and windy  picture is expected further north and west .


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