SSW rapid warming
SSW rapid warming (up to about 50 °C in just a couple of days) in the stratosphere, between 10 km and 50 km up.
You probably have heard of the jet stream this helps to steer Atlantic weather systems towards the UK. there are other jet streams high up in our atmosphere in both the northern and southern hemisphere which circumnavigate the Earth from west to east. One of these, the Polar Night Jet, circles the Arctic.
Sometimes the usual westerly flow can be disrupted by natural weather patterns or disturbances in the lower part of the atmosphere, such as a large area of high pressure in the northern hemisphere. This causes the Polar Jet to wobble and these wobbles, or waves, break just like waves on the beach. When they break they can be strong enough to weaken or even reverse the westerly winds and swing them to easterlies. If this happens, air in the stratosphere starts to collapse in to the polar cap and compress. As it compresses it warms, hence the stratospheric warming.
We have been study the start of a new SSW this coupled with other factors such as the QBO sea ice sea temperatures la Nina and many other factors too as lead to us believe we are heading in the to coldest winter probably since 1963 (60years ago) This may or not happen but one thing we are confidant of it will be a very cold Winter.
Metjeffuk 21/22 Autumn and Winter long range forecast for the UK and Ireland
Remember it's just for fun.
Autumn
October
Headline:
Stormy at times in the north some warm dry days too especially in the south.
The month will start off wet and stormy but I think somewhat dryer in the south with high pressure moving up from the Azores.
By mid-month I expect to see a large high over the continent and this will influence our weather so turning dryer everywhere feeling warm in the sun. By the time we get to end of the month I expect the jet stream to perk up with very stormy weather at the same time it will be turning colder with the first significant snows in the north.
November
Headline:
Cold spells some snow in the north
The month will start off cold and wintry some snow showers over high ground the north when we could see some accumulations in places, it will gradually become more settled high than normal heights will be building to the east and over Scandinavia with an easterly wind it will feel quite cold .
Winter
December
Headline:
Stormy severe gales mild at first but becoming colder
The month will start off wet and cold with some wintry conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent joining up with the Scandinavia High from mid-month as very much colder air spreading from Siberia with snow showers in the east of Scotland and England later I' am expecting the Atlantic to try and come in so a battle zone will take place around Christmas in the west with rain or snow at times one to watch!
January Weather Alert: turning much colder
We start the month very stormy with widespread snow showers and very icy conditions but more settled conditions are likely to develop again with a large area of high pressure over Scandinavia extending a ridge to the UK this will give severe frosts at night but pleasant weather by day later in the month a large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia introducing very cold Siberian air (the Beast from The East as named by Metjeffuk.com in 2014) is once again likely to return!
February
Headline warnings: Stormy Blizzards
Very wintry conditions are likely with very cold easterly winds and snow showers it will feel bitter in the moderate easterly winds, in to the second week is when we are likely to see a very deep area of low pressure to moving off the Atlantic as it hits the very cold air, I am expecting a major snowfall with a blizzard like conditions to affect most of the southern UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will be cold or very cold and snowy.
So colder than average Winter with more snow than usual could one of the coldest for 11 years
and a smaller chance but possible to be as cold matching with 1962/63 but that may be pushing it too much -)
I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk.com
So keep coming back.
But whatever your weather enjoy it!
Date of issue
30/9/2021
October
Headline:
Stormy at times in the north some warm dry days too especially in the south.
The month will start off wet and stormy but I think somewhat dryer in the south with high pressure moving up from the Azores.
By mid-month I expect to see a large high over the continent and this will influence our weather so turning dryer everywhere feeling warm in the sun. By the time we get to end of the month I expect the jet stream to perk up with very stormy weather at the same time it will be turning colder with the first significant snows in the north.
November
Headline:
Cold spells some snow in the north
The month will start off cold and wintry some snow showers over high ground the north when we could see some accumulations in places, it will gradually become more settled high than normal heights will be building to the east and over Scandinavia with an easterly wind it will feel quite cold .
Winter
December
Headline:
Stormy severe gales mild at first but becoming colder
The month will start off wet and cold with some wintry conditions over the high ground in the north, it will however become more settled as a large high extends from the continent joining up with the Scandinavia High from mid-month as very much colder air spreading from Siberia with snow showers in the east of Scotland and England later I' am expecting the Atlantic to try and come in so a battle zone will take place around Christmas in the west with rain or snow at times one to watch!
January Weather Alert: turning much colder
We start the month very stormy with widespread snow showers and very icy conditions but more settled conditions are likely to develop again with a large area of high pressure over Scandinavia extending a ridge to the UK this will give severe frosts at night but pleasant weather by day later in the month a large area of high pressure moving over Scandinavia introducing very cold Siberian air (the Beast from The East as named by Metjeffuk.com in 2014) is once again likely to return!
February
Headline warnings: Stormy Blizzards
Very wintry conditions are likely with very cold easterly winds and snow showers it will feel bitter in the moderate easterly winds, in to the second week is when we are likely to see a very deep area of low pressure to moving off the Atlantic as it hits the very cold air, I am expecting a major snowfall with a blizzard like conditions to affect most of the southern UK and Ireland it will briefly turn less cold but the overall theme for the rest of the month will be cold or very cold and snowy.
So colder than average Winter with more snow than usual could one of the coldest for 11 years
and a smaller chance but possible to be as cold matching with 1962/63 but that may be pushing it too much -)
I will be giving updates throughout the autumn and winter here at metjeffuk.com
So keep coming back.
But whatever your weather enjoy it!
Date of issue
30/9/2021
